The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are private, nonprofit institutions that provide expert advice on some of the most pressing challenges facing the nation and world. Our ...

Optimism bias refers to the tendency to overestimate positive outcomes and underestimate risks. In financial forecasting, ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. A business leader looking at plans for 2025 and 2026 sees politics in every news report. Most of us have a deep, visceral reaction ...

Are professional economists truly objective when forecasting economic projections? New research from Wake Forest University suggests otherwise, revealing a subtle yet powerful influence of political ...

Ever seen a weatherman predict sunshine during a hurricane? That’s confirmation bias in forecasting. It’s far more common than you might think. We all try to find patterns in data, but sometimes we ...

Republican-leaning economists tend to predict stronger economic growth when a Republican is president than Democrats do—and because of this partisan optimism, their forecasts end up being less ...

Republican-leaning economists tend to predict stronger economic growth when a Republican is president than Democrats do – and because of this partisan optimism, their forecasts end up being less ...